· Analysis updated 17:20 UTC
SG Wattenscheid 09 vs Köln II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for SG Wattenscheid 09 and 1.74 for Köln II, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives SG Wattenscheid 09 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.79 – 1.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SG Wattenscheid 09 home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Köln II away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SG Wattenscheid 09 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 22% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.79 goals for SG Wattenscheid 09 and 1.74 for Köln II, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–05.3%
Recent form
SG Wattenscheid 09
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Wiedenbrück · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bonner SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Sportfreunde Siegen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Bocholt · 1-1 (D)
Köln II
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Westfalia Rhynern · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bergisch Gladbach · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Bonner SC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bochum II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportfreunde Lotte · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rot-weiss Oberhausen | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 31 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund II | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 28 |
| 3 | Borussia M'gladbach II | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | FC Gutersloh | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Sportfreunde Siegen | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Bonner SC | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Schalke 04 II | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Westfalia Rhynern | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 | Bergisch Gladbach | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 16 |
| 10 | Hilden | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 15 |
| 11 | Köln II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Bochum II | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 14 |
| 13 | FC Bocholt | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 | Paderborn II | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | SG Wattenscheid 09 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | SV Rodinghausen | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Wiedenbrück | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 8 |
| 18 | Sportfreunde Lotte | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.