· Analysis updated 23:37 UTC
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 vs 1860 München U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 and 2.53 for 1860 München U19, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives 1860 München U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
1860 München U19 win
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 2.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
1860 München U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 1860 München U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 17% / 18% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 and 2.53 for 1860 München U19, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.2%
- 1–37.7%
- 0–27.5%
- 1–17.3%
- 0–36.3%
Recent form
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Unterhaching U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ingolstadt U19 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgart U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jahn Regensburg U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs 1860 München U19 · 2-5 (L)
1860 München U19
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Heidenheim U19 · 4-6 (L)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Unterhaching U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgart U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Wieseck U19 · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 1860 München U19 win, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.