· Analysis updated 00:54 UTC
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 vs Ingolstadt U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 and 2.45 for Ingolstadt U19, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Ingolstadt U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ingolstadt U19 win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 2.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ingolstadt U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 27% / 19% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 and 2.45 for Ingolstadt U19, a combined 4.15 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 75%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–36.6%
- 1–16.6%
- 2–35.6%
Recent form
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Unterhaching U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ingolstadt U19 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgart U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jahn Regensburg U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs 1860 München U19 · 2-5 (L)
Ingolstadt U19
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ingolstadt U19 win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.