· Analysis updated 02:27 UTC
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 vs Jahn Regensburg U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 and 2.75 for Jahn Regensburg U19, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Jahn Regensburg U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Jahn Regensburg U19 win
73.9% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 2.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jahn Regensburg U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jahn Regensburg U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 11% / 15% / 74% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 and 2.75 for Jahn Regensburg U19, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
26%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–28.9%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–38.2%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Unterhaching U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ingolstadt U19 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgart U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jahn Regensburg U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs 1860 München U19 · 2-5 (L)
Jahn Regensburg U19
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Unterhaching U19 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ingolstadt U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs 1860 München U19 · 2-8 (L)
- 2026-05-17T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Freiburg U19 · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 2-1 Jahn Regensburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2026-05-09T12:00:00.000Z · SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 1-1 Jahn Regensburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2026-03-08T13:00:00.000Z · SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 3-1 Jahn Regensburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Jahn Regensburg U19 win, at 73.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.