· Analysis updated 11:56 UTC
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 vs Karlsruher SC U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 and 1.72 for Karlsruher SC U19, a combined total of 3.39. That distribution gives Karlsruher SC U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.3% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Karlsruher SC U19 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Karlsruher SC U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 38% / 23% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 and 1.72 for Karlsruher SC U19, a combined 3.39 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.8%
Recent form
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Unterhaching U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ingolstadt U19 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgart U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jahn Regensburg U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs 1860 München U19 · 2-5 (L)
Karlsruher SC U19
- 2026-10-25T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Augsburg U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Heidenheim U19 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgarter K'rs U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandhausen U19 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.