· Analysis updated 01:05 UTC
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 vs Stuttgart U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 and 3.00 for Stuttgart U19, a combined total of 4.43. That distribution gives Stuttgart U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Stuttgart U19 win
69.2% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stuttgart U19 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stuttgart U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 16% / 15% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 and 3.00 for Stuttgart U19, a combined 4.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
31%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.7%
- 1–37.7%
- 1–45.8%
- 2–25.5%
- 2–35.5%
Recent form
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Unterhaching U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ingolstadt U19 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgart U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jahn Regensburg U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs 1860 München U19 · 2-5 (L)
Stuttgart U19
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC U19 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Jahn Regensburg U19 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Viking U19 · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Freiburg U19 · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stuttgart U19 win, at 69.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.