SGV Freiberg vs FSV Mainz 05 II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for SGV Freiberg and 1.05 for FSV Mainz 05 II, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives SGV Freiberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

SGV Freiberg win

60.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.08 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SGV Freiberg home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FSV Mainz 05 II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SGV Freiberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for SGV Freiberg and 1.05 for FSV Mainz 05 II, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

SGV Freiberg win61%

Draw21%

FSV Mainz 05 II win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

2–19.9%
1–19.6%
2–09.5%
1–09.1%
3–16.9%

Recent form

SGV Freiberg

2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kickers Offenbach · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Freiburg II · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs TSV Steinbach · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgarter Kickers · 2-2 (D)

FSV Mainz 05 II

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SSV Ulm 1846 · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Astoria Walldorf · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Freiburg II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hessen Kassel · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - SudWest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SGV Freiberg	13	7	6	0	19	27
2	VfR Aalen	13	8	3	2	12	27
3	VfR Mannheim	13	7	5	1	13	26
4	Stuttgarter Kickers	13	7	2	4	4	23
5	Eintracht Trier	13	7	1	5	-1	22
6	Kickers Offenbach	13	6	3	4	6	21
7	FC 08 Homburg	12	5	4	3	1	19
8	SV Sandhausen	13	5	4	4	-2	19
9	Freiburg II	12	4	5	3	5	17
10	TSV Steinbach	13	4	4	5	0	16
11	Eintracht Frankfurt II	12	5	1	6	-1	16
12	Hessen Kassel	13	4	2	7	-7	14
13	FC Astoria Walldorf	13	3	4	6	-2	13
14	FSV Frankfurt	13	3	4	6	-3	13
15	Kaiserslautern II	13	2	5	6	-13	11
16	FSV Mainz 05 II	13	3	2	8	-13	11
17	SSV Ulm 1846	12	1	6	5	-7	9
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	13	2	3	8	-11	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SGV Freiberg win, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.