SGV Freiberg vs Kaiserslautern II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.11 expected goals for SGV Freiberg and 0.83 for Kaiserslautern II, a combined total of 3.94. That distribution gives SGV Freiberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

SGV Freiberg win

81.9% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.11 – 0.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SGV Freiberg home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kaiserslautern II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SGV Freiberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 11% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.11 goals for SGV Freiberg and 0.83 for Kaiserslautern II, a combined 3.94 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

SGV Freiberg win82%

Draw11%

Kaiserslautern II win7%

Double chance 1X

93%

Double chance 12

89%

Double chance X2

18%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals75%

Over 3.5 goals55%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

3–09.7%
2–09.4%
3–18.1%
2–17.8%
4–07.6%

Recent form

SGV Freiberg

2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kickers Offenbach · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Freiburg II · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs TSV Steinbach · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgarter Kickers · 2-2 (D)

Kaiserslautern II

2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Freiburg II · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt II · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Frankfurt · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hessen Kassel · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Sandhausen · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - SudWest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SGV Freiberg	13	7	6	0	19	27
2	VfR Aalen	13	8	3	2	12	27
3	VfR Mannheim	13	7	5	1	13	26
4	Stuttgarter Kickers	13	7	2	4	4	23
5	Eintracht Trier	13	7	1	5	-1	22
6	Kickers Offenbach	13	6	3	4	6	21
7	FC 08 Homburg	13	5	5	3	1	20
8	SV Sandhausen	13	5	4	4	-2	19
9	Freiburg II	12	4	5	3	5	17
10	TSV Steinbach	13	4	4	5	0	16
11	Eintracht Frankfurt II	12	5	1	6	-1	16
12	Hessen Kassel	13	4	2	7	-7	14
13	FC Astoria Walldorf	13	3	4	6	-2	13
14	FSV Frankfurt	13	3	4	6	-3	13
15	Kaiserslautern II	13	2	5	6	-13	11
16	FSV Mainz 05 II	13	3	2	8	-13	11
17	SSV Ulm 1846	13	1	7	5	-7	10
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	13	2	3	8	-11	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SGV Freiberg win, at 81.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.

A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.