· Analysis updated 15:39 UTC
SGV Freiberg vs Stuttgarter Kickers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for SGV Freiberg and 1.10 for Stuttgarter Kickers, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives SGV Freiberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SGV Freiberg win
58.7% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SGV Freiberg home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stuttgarter Kickers away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.8%
- 2–09.0%
- 1–08.9%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
SGV Freiberg
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Freiburg II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs TSV Steinbach · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgarter Kickers · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs VfR Aalen · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 II · 5-0 (W)
Stuttgarter Kickers
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs VfR Mannheim · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kickers Offenbach · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SGV Freiberg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Frankfurt · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-06T12:00:00.000Z · SGV Freiberg 2-1 Stuttgarter Kickers (Regionalliga - SudWest)
- 2025-09-30T17:00:00.000Z · SGV Freiberg 1-1 Stuttgarter Kickers (Regionalliga - SudWest)
- 2025-04-09T17:00:00.000Z · SGV Freiberg 2-3 Stuttgarter Kickers (Regionalliga - SudWest)
- 2024-09-28T12:00:00.000Z · SGV Freiberg 2-2 Stuttgarter Kickers (Regionalliga - SudWest)
- 2024-05-11T12:00:00.000Z · SGV Freiberg 0-1 Stuttgarter Kickers (Regionalliga - SudWest)
- 2023-11-04T13:00:00.000Z · SGV Freiberg 0-2 Stuttgarter Kickers (Regionalliga - SudWest)
- 2022-03-09T18:00:00.000Z · SGV Freiberg 2-1 Stuttgarter Kickers (Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg)
- 2021-08-14T12:00:00.000Z · SGV Freiberg 0-1 Stuttgarter Kickers (Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg)
Regionalliga - SudWest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SGV Freiberg | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 19 | 26 |
| 2 | VfR Aalen | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 24 |
| 3 | VfR Mannheim | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 23 |
| 4 | Stuttgarter Kickers | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 23 |
| 5 | Kickers Offenbach | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 6 | FC 08 Homburg | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | SV Sandhausen | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Eintracht Trier | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 9 | Freiburg II | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 10 | TSV Steinbach | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 11 | Hessen Kassel | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | FSV Frankfurt | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Eintracht Frankfurt II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | FSV Mainz 05 II | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 15 | FC Astoria Walldorf | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 | Kaiserslautern II | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -13 | 10 |
| 17 | SSV Ulm 1846 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 18 | Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SGV Freiberg win, at 58.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.