SGV Freiberg vs TSV Steinbach Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for SGV Freiberg and 1.23 for TSV Steinbach, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives SGV Freiberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

SGV Freiberg win

63.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.40 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SGV Freiberg home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
TSV Steinbach away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SGV Freiberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 19% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for SGV Freiberg and 1.23 for TSV Steinbach, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

SGV Freiberg win63%

Draw19%

TSV Steinbach win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

2–19.4%
1–17.8%
2–07.7%
3–17.5%
1–06.4%

Recent form

SGV Freiberg

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Freiburg II · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs TSV Steinbach · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgarter Kickers · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs VfR Aalen · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 II · 5-0 (W)

TSV Steinbach

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Trier · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SGV Freiberg · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC 08 Homburg · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Astoria Walldorf · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - SudWest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SGV Freiberg	11	6	5	0	16	23
2	VfR Aalen	11	6	3	2	9	21
3	Kickers Offenbach	11	6	2	3	7	20
4	Stuttgarter Kickers	11	6	2	3	4	20
5	VfR Mannheim	10	4	5	1	7	17
6	Freiburg II	10	4	4	2	6	16
7	TSV Steinbach	11	4	4	3	4	16
8	FC 08 Homburg	11	4	4	3	0	16
9	SV Sandhausen	11	4	4	3	-2	16
10	Eintracht Trier	11	5	1	5	-4	16
11	Hessen Kassel	11	4	2	5	-1	14
12	FSV Frankfurt	10	3	3	4	-1	12
13	Eintracht Frankfurt II	9	3	1	5	-2	10
14	FC Astoria Walldorf	11	2	4	5	-3	10
15	FSV Mainz 05 II	11	3	1	7	-11	10
16	Kaiserslautern II	10	2	3	5	-12	9
17	SSV Ulm 1846	11	1	5	5	-7	8
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	11	1	3	7	-10	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SGV Freiberg win, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.