Al Rashid Stadium · Analysis updated 07:59 UTC
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.63 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.00 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.62. That distribution gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win
72.2% probability
Expected goals
2.63 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 16% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.63 goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.00 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined 3.62 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 58%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 3–08.1%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–07.0%
Recent form
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- 2026-10-08T13:10:00.000Z · H vs Dubai United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasr · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hatta SC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tractor Sazi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T13:40:00.000Z · A vs Dubai United · 1-1 (D)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Jazira | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 14 |
| 2 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Al-Wasl FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 |
| 4 | Al Ain | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Wahda FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sharjah FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Ajman | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Al Nasr | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Dubai United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 10 | Al-Dhafra | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 5 |
| 12 | Khorfakkan | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 13 | Hatta SC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Baniyas SC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win, at 72.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.