Al Rashid Stadium · Referee G. Tejera · Analysis updated 14:20 UTC
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.30 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.1% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Jazira away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–09.4%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- 2026-10-08T13:10:00.000Z · H vs Dubai United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasr · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hatta SC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tractor Sazi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T13:40:00.000Z · A vs Dubai United · 1-1 (D)
Al-Jazira
- 2026-10-02T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Khorfakkan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Wahda FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Gol Gohar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T13:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasr · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-3 Al-Jazira (Pro League)
- 2026-04-04T16:30:00.000Z · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-1 Al-Jazira (Pro League)
- 2026-03-21T14:55:00.000Z · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0-1 Al-Jazira (Presidents Cup)
- 2026-01-03T15:45:00.000Z · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-0 Al-Jazira (Pro League)
- 2025-05-25T16:00:00.000Z · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-1 Al-Jazira (Pro League)
- 2025-04-19T16:45:00.000Z · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-2 Al-Jazira (League Cup)
- 2025-01-21T13:05:00.000Z · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-1 Al-Jazira (Pro League)
- 2024-04-07T18:00:00.000Z · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-2 Al-Jazira (Pro League)
- 2023-10-07T16:00:00.000Z · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-1 Al-Jazira (Pro League)
- 2023-03-11T13:45:00.000Z · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-2 Al-Jazira (Pro League)
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Jazira | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 14 |
| 2 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Al-Wasl FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 |
| 4 | Al Ain | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Wahda FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sharjah FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Ajman | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Al Nasr | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Dubai United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 10 | Al-Dhafra | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 5 |
| 12 | Khorfakkan | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 13 | Hatta SC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Baniyas SC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.