Al Rashid Stadium · Referee Q. E. Almansoori R. · Analysis updated 19:40 UTC
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dubai United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.33 for Dubai United, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win
51.8% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dubai United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 22% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.33 for Dubai United, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.3%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.5%
Recent form
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- 2026-10-08T13:10:00.000Z · H vs Dubai United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasr · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hatta SC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tractor Sazi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T13:40:00.000Z · A vs Dubai United · 1-1 (D)
Dubai United
- 2026-10-01T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Hatta SC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Nasr · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T13:40:00.000Z · H vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Sharjah FC · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-28T13:55:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad Kalba · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win, at 51.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.