Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.63 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 0.93 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.56. That distribution gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win

73.4% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.63 – 0.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 16% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.63 goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 0.93 for Khorfakkan, a combined 3.56 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 56%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win73%

Draw16%

Khorfakkan win11%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

27%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

2–09.8%
2–19.2%
3–08.6%
3–18.0%
1–07.5%

Recent form

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

2026-10-08T13:10:00.000Z · H vs Dubai United · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-02T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasr · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hatta SC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tractor Sazi · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-10T13:40:00.000Z · A vs Dubai United · 1-1 (D)

Khorfakkan

2026-10-24T12:55:00.000Z · H vs Al-Dhafra · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-18T13:05:00.000Z · H vs Al Wahda FC · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-08T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Wasl FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-02T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Jazira · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ittihad Kalba · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Pro League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al-Jazira	6	4	2	0	9	14
2	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	6	4	1	1	7	13
3	Al-Wasl FC	6	4	1	1	11	13
4	Al Ain	6	4	1	1	5	13
5	Al Wahda FC	6	4	0	2	2	12
6	Sharjah FC	6	4	0	2	5	12
7	Ajman	6	3	0	3	-3	9
8	Al Nasr	6	2	2	2	1	8
9	Dubai United	6	2	1	3	-5	7
10	Al-Dhafra	6	2	0	4	-2	6
11	Al-Ittihad Kalba	6	1	2	3	-7	5
12	Khorfakkan	6	1	1	4	-8	4
13	Hatta SC	6	1	0	5	-8	3
14	Baniyas SC	6	0	1	5	-7	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win, at 73.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.