· Analysis updated 19:03 UTC
Shabab Al Ordon vs Al Ahli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Shabab Al Ordon and 1.10 for Al Ahli, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Shabab Al Ordon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.6% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shabab Al Ordon home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Ahli away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–110.5%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–18.2%
Recent form
Shabab Al Ordon
- 2026-10-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Buqa'a · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Hussein · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Jazeera · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ramtha · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sama Al Sarhan · 2-0 (W)
Al Ahli
- 2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sama · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Wihdat · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Buqa'a · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Faisaly · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sama Al Sarhan · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-16T19:00:00.000Z · Shabab Al Ordon 0-1 Al Ahli (League)
- 2026-02-24T18:45:00.000Z · Shabab Al Ordon 1-0 Al Ahli (League)
- 2025-09-25T15:00:00.000Z · Shabab Al Ordon 2-0 Al Ahli (League)
- 2025-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · Shabab Al Ordon 0-2 Al Ahli (Shield Cup)
- 2025-03-04T19:00:00.000Z · Shabab Al Ordon 2-0 Al Ahli (League)
- 2024-12-14T13:00:00.000Z · Shabab Al Ordon 1-2 Al Ahli (Cup)
- 2024-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · Shabab Al Ordon 2-3 Al Ahli (League)
- 2024-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · Shabab Al Ordon 0-1 Al Ahli (League)
- 2023-11-25T14:00:00.000Z · Shabab Al Ordon 1-0 Al Ahli (League)
- 2023-05-11T18:30:00.000Z · Shabab Al Ordon 0-1 Al Ahli (Shield Cup)
League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Faisaly | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 14 |
| 2 | Al Buqa'a | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 3 | Al Wihdat | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Al Jazeera | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| 5 | Al Ramtha | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Hussein | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 7 | Al Salt | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 8 | Doqarah | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Arabi | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 10 | Shabab Al Ordon | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.