· Analysis updated 17:03 UTC
Shabab Al Ordon vs Sama Al Sarhan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Shabab Al Ordon and 1.03 for Sama Al Sarhan, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives Shabab Al Ordon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Shabab Al Ordon win
61.8% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shabab Al Ordon home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sama Al Sarhan away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shabab Al Ordon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 20% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Shabab Al Ordon and 1.03 for Sama Al Sarhan, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.7%
- 1–19.5%
- 1–09.3%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Shabab Al Ordon
- 2026-10-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Buqa'a · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Hussein · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Jazeera · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ramtha · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sama Al Sarhan · 2-0 (W)
Sama Al Sarhan
- 2026-05-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ordon · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Hussein · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ramtha · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Hussein · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Faisaly | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Al Ramtha | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Al Buqa'a | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Al Jazeera | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| 5 | Al Wihdat | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Al Hussein | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 7 | Al Salt | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Doqarah | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | Shabab Al Ordon | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 10 | Al Arabi | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shabab Al Ordon win, at 61.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.