Beirut Municipal Stadium · Analysis updated 01:37 UTC
Shabab Al Sahel vs Safa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.74 expected goals for Shabab Al Sahel and 1.87 for Safa, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Safa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Safa win
64.0% probability
Expected goals
0.74 – 1.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Safa away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Safa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 14% / 22% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.74 goals for Shabab Al Sahel and 1.87 for Safa, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 44%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.7%
- 0–212.8%
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–38.0%
Recent form
Shabab Al Sahel
Safa
- 2026-07-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Mabarrah · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Jwaaya FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahed · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-06-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Reyady Abaseya · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-06-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Sahel · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jwaaya FC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Tadamon Sour | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Safa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Al Ahed | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Tripoli SC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 6 | Al Nejmeh | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Al Ansar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Mabarrah | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 9 | Al Hikma | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 10 | Reyady Abaseya | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 11 | Shabab Al Sahel | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 12 | Al Akhaa Al Ahli | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Safa win, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.