· Analysis updated 08:49 UTC
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 vs Obolon' Kyiv U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk U19 and 1.05 for Obolon' Kyiv U19, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Shakhtar Donetsk U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 win
57.8% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Obolon' Kyiv U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shakhtar Donetsk U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 22% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for Shakhtar Donetsk U19 and 1.05 for Obolon' Kyiv U19, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–09.5%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
- 2026-09-16T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Karpaty Lviv U19 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolos Kovalivka U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Metalist 1925 U19 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Kyiv U19 · 1-2 (L)
Obolon' Kyiv U19
- 2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · A vs LNZ Cherkasy U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Shakhtar Donetsk U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Metalurh U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Livyi Bereh U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Oleksandria U19 · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
U19 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rukh Vynnyky U19 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 35 | 27 |
| 2 | Dynamo Kyiv U19 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 3 | LNZ Cherkasy U19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 4 | Livyi Bereh U19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 20 |
| 5 | Karpaty Lviv U19 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 19 |
| 6 | Oleksandria U19 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Metalist 1925 U19 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 14 |
| 8 | Veres Rivne U19 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Zhytomyr U19 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 10 | Shakhtar Donetsk U19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Lviv U19 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
| 12 | Obolon' Kyiv U19 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 13 | SK Metalurh U19 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -18 | 8 |
| 14 | Kolos Kovalivka U19 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -14 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shakhtar Donetsk U19 win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.