Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.13 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Shakhtar Donetsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Shakhtar Donetsk win

57.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.98 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Shakhtar Donetsk home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kolos Kovalivka away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shakhtar Donetsk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.13 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Shakhtar Donetsk win57%

Draw22%

Kolos Kovalivka win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–110.0%
2–19.9%
1–08.9%
2–08.8%
3–16.5%

Recent form

Shakhtar Donetsk

2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zorya Luhansk · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolos Kovalivka · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs AEK Athens FC · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Veres Rivne · 3-0 (W)

Kolos Kovalivka

2026-10-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Veres Rivne · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Zorya Luhansk · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kudrivka · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Polessya	10	8	1	1	15	25
2	Shakhtar Donetsk	10	8	1	1	15	25
3	FC Kharkiv	9	7	0	2	11	21
4	Dynamo Kyiv	9	6	1	2	5	19
5	Karpaty	10	4	4	2	9	16
6	LNZ Cherkasy	10	4	3	3	1	15
7	Zorya Luhansk	10	4	3	3	-1	15
8	Kolos Kovalivka	9	3	2	4	-1	11
9	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	10	2	3	5	-4	9
10	Bukovyna	10	1	6	3	-5	9
11	Veres Rivne	10	2	3	5	-7	9
12	Livyi Bereh	9	1	5	3	-2	8
13	Obolon'-Brovar	9	1	4	4	-11	7
14	Chornomorets	9	1	3	5	-6	6
15	Kryvbas KR	8	1	3	4	-6	6
16	Kudrivka	10	1	2	7	-13	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Shakhtar Donetsk win, at 57.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.