Arena Lviv · Referee Denys Shurman, Ukraine · Analysis updated 11:54 UTC
Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.85 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Shakhtar Donetsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Shakhtar Donetsk win
50.5% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shakhtar Donetsk home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
LNZ Cherkasy away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.6%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–010.4%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–18.9%
Recent form
Shakhtar Donetsk
- 2026-10-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Veres Rivne · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kryvbas KR · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs LNZ Cherkasy · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilkhivtsi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chornomorets · 2-0 (W)
LNZ Cherkasy
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kudrivka · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bukovyna · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Obolon'-Brovar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Kyiv · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 LNZ Cherkasy (Premier League)
- 2026-04-13T10:00:00.000Z · Shakhtar Donetsk 2-2 LNZ Cherkasy (Premier League)
- 2026-02-10T14:00:00.000Z · Shakhtar Donetsk 0-1 LNZ Cherkasy (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-10-05T15:00:00.000Z · Shakhtar Donetsk 1-4 LNZ Cherkasy (Premier League)
- 2025-04-11T12:30:00.000Z · Shakhtar Donetsk 4-1 LNZ Cherkasy (Premier League)
- 2024-10-06T12:30:00.000Z · Shakhtar Donetsk 5-1 LNZ Cherkasy (Premier League)
- 2024-04-27T12:30:00.000Z · Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 LNZ Cherkasy (Premier League)
- 2023-10-21T14:00:00.000Z · Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 LNZ Cherkasy (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polessya | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | FC Kharkiv | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | Zorya Luhansk | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Kolos Kovalivka | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Veres Rivne | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 11 | Livyi Bereh | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Bukovyna | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Obolon'-Brovar | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -11 | 7 |
| 14 | Chornomorets | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Kudrivka | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 5 |
| 16 | Kryvbas KR | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shakhtar Donetsk win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.