Shakhtar Donetsk vs Polessya Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.33 for Polessya, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives Shakhtar Donetsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Shakhtar Donetsk win

63.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.50 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Shakhtar Donetsk home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shakhtar Donetsk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 18% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.33 for Polessya, a combined 3.83 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 67%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Shakhtar Donetsk win63%

Draw18%

Polessya win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

2–19.0%
3–17.5%
1–17.2%
2–06.8%
2–26.0%

Recent form

Shakhtar Donetsk

2026-10-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Veres Rivne · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kryvbas KR · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs LNZ Cherkasy · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilkhivtsi · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chornomorets · 2-0 (W)

Polessya

2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kryvbas KR · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Livyi Bereh · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kudrivka · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kudrivka · 5-1 (W)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	8	7	0	1	14	21
2	Polessya	8	6	1	1	10	19
3	Dynamo Kyiv	7	5	1	1	5	16
4	FC Kharkiv	7	5	0	2	9	15
5	Karpaty	8	4	2	2	9	14
6	Zorya Luhansk	8	3	2	3	-2	11
7	LNZ Cherkasy	8	3	2	3	-2	11
8	Veres Rivne	9	2	3	4	-5	9
9	Kolos Kovalivka	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	Bukovyna	8	1	5	2	-2	8
11	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	8	2	2	4	-3	8
12	Livyi Bereh	7	1	4	2	-1	7
13	Obolon'-Brovar	8	1	4	3	-8	7
14	Chornomorets	7	1	2	4	-5	5
15	Kryvbas KR	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Kudrivka	8	0	2	6	-14	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Shakhtar Donetsk win, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.