Shakhter Karagandy vs Kaspij Aktau 2 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.12 expected goals for Shakhter Karagandy and 0.43 for Kaspij Aktau 2, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Shakhter Karagandy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 89%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 89% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Shakhter Karagandy win

88.9% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.12 – 0.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Shakhter Karagandy home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kaspij Aktau 2 away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shakhter Karagandy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 89%, against 89% / 8% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.12 goals for Shakhter Karagandy and 0.43 for Kaspij Aktau 2, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Shakhter Karagandy win89%

Draw8%

Kaspij Aktau 2 win3%

Double chance 1X

97%

Double chance 12

92%

Double chance X2

11%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score33%

Correct score

3–014.5%
2–014.0%
4–011.3%
1–09.0%
5–07.0%

Recent form

Shakhter Karagandy

2026-08-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Yelimay Semey 2 · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Astana II · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aktobe Jas · 6-1 (W)
2026-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaspij Aktau 2 · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-31T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tobol 2 · 2-0 (W)

Kaspij Aktau 2

2026-08-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Akademiya Ontustik · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jaiyq · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Yelimay Semey 2 · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhter Karagandy · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe Jas · 6-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shakhter Karagandy	23	20	2	1	56	62
2	Sport Academy Kairat	23	17	5	1	54	56
3	Turan Turkistan	23	16	2	5	30	50
4	Akademiya Ontustik	23	13	4	6	9	43
5	Astana II	23	10	3	10	-1	33
6	Jaiyq	23	9	4	10	-5	31
7	Taraz	23	8	6	9	-2	30
8	Ekibastuz	23	7	5	11	-22	26
9	Kaspij Aktau 2	23	7	4	12	-12	25
10	Khan Tengri	23	7	4	12	-15	25
11	Arys	23	7	3	13	-14	24
12	Aktobe Jas	23	6	5	12	-31	23
13	Tobol 2	23	4	4	15	-17	16
14	Yelimay Semey 2	23	3	3	17	-30	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Shakhter Karagandy win, at 88.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 89% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.