· Analysis updated 10:48 UTC
Shamiya vs Al Jazira Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Shamiya and 3.32 for Al Jazira, a combined total of 4.33. That distribution gives Al Jazira the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Jazira win
81.1% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 3.32
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shamiya home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Jazira to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 8% / 11% / 81% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Shamiya and 3.32 for Al Jazira, a combined 4.33 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 80% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
19%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–38.1%
- 0–38.0%
- 1–27.3%
- 0–27.2%
- 1–46.7%
Recent form
Shamiya
- 2026-10-24T14:35:00.000Z · H vs Yarmouk · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Jazira · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-10-08T14:50:00.000Z · H vs Ittihad Al-Shorta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-20T17:10:00.000Z · H vs Khaitan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-17T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Burgan · 1-4 (L)
Al Jazira
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-06T17:45:00.000Z · Shamiya 0-5 Al Jazira (Division 1)
- 2026-01-15T13:20:00.000Z · Shamiya 1-2 Al Jazira (Division 1)
- 2025-09-29T15:05:00.000Z · Shamiya 0-3 Al Jazira (Division 1)
Division 1 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Jazira win, at 81.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.