Tallaght Stadium · Referee S. Barrott · Analysis updated 08:05 UTC
Shamrock Rovers vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.68 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.68 for Ararat-Armenia, a combined total of 4.35. That distribution gives Shamrock Rovers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Shamrock Rovers win
59.0% probability
Expected goals
2.68 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.7%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–26.5%
- 1–15.8%
- 3–25.8%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shamrock Rovers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 18% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.68 goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.68 for Ararat-Armenia, a combined 4.35 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 81% and both teams to score at 76%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 59% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 70/100 while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Shamrock Rovers
Ararat-Armenia
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.