Sardar Azadegan Stadium · Analysis updated 14:33 UTC
Shams Azar Qazvin vs Aluminium Arak Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Shams Azar Qazvin and 0.85 for Aluminium Arak, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives Shams Azar Qazvin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.6% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shams Azar Qazvin home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aluminium Arak away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.6%
- 0–013.9%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–111.8%
- 2–08.8%
Recent form
Shams Azar Qazvin
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sepahan FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Paykan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Gol Gohar · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Chadormalu SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-01T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Tractor Sazi · 0-0 (D)
Aluminium Arak
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Esteghlal FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-01T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Gol Gohar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Kheybar Khorramabad · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Shams Azar Qazvin · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chadormalu SC · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · Shams Azar Qazvin 1-2 Aluminium Arak (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2026-02-13T11:30:00.000Z · Shams Azar Qazvin 0-0 Aluminium Arak (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2025-10-03T13:45:00.000Z · Shams Azar Qazvin 0-1 Aluminium Arak (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2025-05-15T14:30:00.000Z · Shams Azar Qazvin 1-3 Aluminium Arak (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2025-01-02T11:30:00.000Z · Shams Azar Qazvin 0-3 Aluminium Arak (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2024-03-08T12:30:00.000Z · Shams Azar Qazvin 2-1 Aluminium Arak (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2023-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · Shams Azar Qazvin 0-2 Aluminium Arak (Persian Gulf Pro League)
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persepolis FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 20 |
| 2 | Tractor Sazi | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Esteghlal FC | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | Sepahan FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Foolad FC | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Aluminium Arak | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Kheybar Khorramabad | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Gol Gohar | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Fajr Sepasi | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Chadormalu SC | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 | Nassaji Mazandaran | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Paykan | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Malavan | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | ZOB Ahan | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Shams Azar Qazvin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Sanat Naft | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 18 | Mes Shahr-e Babak | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.