· Analysis updated 12:06 UTC
Shan United vs Dagon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for Shan United and 1.70 for Dagon, a combined total of 3.59. That distribution gives Shan United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.89 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shan United home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dagon away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.9%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–27.1%
- 3–15.3%
Recent form
Shan United
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Hantharwady United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Ezra · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Ezra · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Myawady · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangon Royals · 2-2 (D)
Dagon
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayeyawady United · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Hantharwady United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangon United · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-03-09T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Thitsar Arman · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-03-03T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Sagaing United · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-23T09:30:00.000Z · Shan United 3-1 Dagon (National League)
- 2025-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · Shan United 4-0 Dagon (National League)
- 2025-02-01T09:30:00.000Z · Shan United 0-0 Dagon (National League)
- 2024-07-11T09:00:00.000Z · Shan United 2-1 Dagon (National League)
- 2023-10-30T09:00:00.000Z · Shan United 3-1 Dagon (National League)
- 2023-06-06T09:15:00.000Z · Shan United 3-2 Dagon (National League)
- 2019-07-06T09:00:00.000Z · Shan United 4-2 Dagon (National League)
- 2019-01-26T09:30:00.000Z · Shan United 5-2 Dagon (National League)
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dagon | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 |
| 2 | Yangon Royals | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Shan United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 4 | Yadanarbon | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Yangon United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Thitsar Arman | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | I.S.P.E | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Sagaing United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Hantharwady United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | Ayeyawady United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 11 | GFA | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 12 | Myawady | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.