Thuwunna Stadium · Referee Kim Dae-Yong · Analysis updated 15:56 UTC
Shan United vs Kasuka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.69 expected goals for Shan United and 1.31 for Kasuka, a combined total of 3.99. That distribution gives Shan United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Shan United win
66.6% probability
Expected goals
2.69 – 1.31
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shan United home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shan United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 17% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.69 goals for Shan United and 1.31 for Kasuka, a combined 3.99 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 68%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–06.6%
- 1–16.5%
- 3–05.9%
Recent form
Shan United
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Hantharwady United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Ezra · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Ezra · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Myawady · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangon Royals · 2-2 (D)
Kasuka
- 2025-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dynamic Herb Cebu · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-08-12T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Phnom Penh Crown · 0-6 (L)
- 2025-08-08T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Dynamic Herb Cebu · 2-1 (W)
- 2024-07-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Shan United · 1-3 (L)
- 2024-07-17T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Shan United · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
ASEAN Club Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manila Digger | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Ezra | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Shan United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Kuching FA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Tampines Rovers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Ho Chi Minh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Ratchaburi | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Buriram United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Pusamania Borneo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Kasuka | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shan United win, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.