Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.63 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Shandong Luneng the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.71 – 1.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Shandong Luneng home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chengdu Better City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shandong Luneng to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 23% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.63 for Chengdu Better City, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Shandong Luneng win40%

Draw23%

Chengdu Better City win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.9%
2–18.4%
1–28.0%
2–26.9%
1–06.0%

Recent form

Shandong Luneng

2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sichuan Jiuniu · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-01T11:35:00.000Z · H vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-28T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Shenhua · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Qingdao Youth Island · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-14T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Qingdao Jonoon · 3-1 (W)

Chengdu Better City

2026-09-06T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Henan Jianye · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Shenyang Urban · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-22T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Shanghai Shenhua · 4-5 (L)
2026-08-15T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Hangzhou Greentown · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Yunnan Yukun · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chengdu Better City	29	15	7	7	16	52
2	Dalian Zhixing	29	15	4	10	3	49
3	Beijing Guoan	29	14	10	5	21	47
4	Shandong Luneng	29	15	5	9	10	44
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	29	13	8	8	14	42
6	Yunnan Yukun	29	11	7	11	-3	40
7	Qingdao Youth Island	29	8	15	6	-6	39
8	Shanghai Shenhua	29	14	5	10	13	37
9	Chongqing Tongliang Long	29	8	12	9	-3	36
10	Hangzhou Greentown	29	11	6	12	-3	34
11	Sichuan Jiuniu	29	9	5	15	-12	32
12	Tianjin Teda	29	11	8	10	4	31
13	Shenyang Urban	29	8	5	16	-11	29
14	Henan Jianye	29	8	10	11	-4	28
15	Wuhan Three Towns	29	5	12	12	-11	22
16	Qingdao Jonoon	29	6	3	20	-28	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.