Jinan Olympic Sports Center · Referee Meng Xiangkun, China · Analysis updated 16:15 UTC
Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.72 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Shandong Luneng the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.1% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shandong Luneng home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hangzhou Greentown away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shandong Luneng to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 22% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.72 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–05.2%
Recent form
Shandong Luneng
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sichuan Jiuniu · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T11:35:00.000Z · H vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Shenhua · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Qingdao Youth Island · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-14T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Qingdao Jonoon · 3-1 (W)
Hangzhou Greentown
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Wuhan Three Towns · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tianjin Teda · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Yunnan Yukun · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Sichuan Jiuniu · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 52 |
| 2 | Dalian Zhixing | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 49 |
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 21 | 47 |
| 4 | Shandong Luneng | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 44 |
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 42 |
| 6 | Yunnan Yukun | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | -3 | 40 |
| 7 | Qingdao Youth Island | 29 | 8 | 15 | 6 | -6 | 39 |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 9 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 29 | 8 | 12 | 9 | -3 | 36 |
| 10 | Hangzhou Greentown | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | -12 | 32 |
| 12 | Tianjin Teda | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 31 |
| 13 | Shenyang Urban | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 29 |
| 14 | Henan Jianye | 29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | -4 | 28 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 29 | 5 | 12 | 12 | -11 | 22 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 29 | 6 | 3 | 20 | -28 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.