Zaozhuang Sports Center Stadium · Referee Mu Fupeng · Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Shandong Taishan II vs Jiangxi Liansheng Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Shandong Taishan II and 0.68 for Jiangxi Liansheng, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Shandong Taishan II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Shandong Taishan II win
50.6% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shandong Taishan II home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jiangxi Liansheng away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shandong Taishan II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 29% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Shandong Taishan II and 0.68 for Jiangxi Liansheng, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.1%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–011.5%
- 0–19.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.67 (model 64.5% vs market 54.5%, edge +10.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.67 | 54.5% | 64.5% | 1.55 | +10.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.00 | 46.8% | 49.3% | 2.03 | +2.5 |
| Match result | Away | 4.50 | 19.7% | 19.9% | 5.03 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.75 | 50.7% | 50.6% | 1.98 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 29.6% | 29.4% | 3.40 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 81.3% | 80.0% | 1.25 | -1.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.9% | 70.5% | 1.42 | -1.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 45.5% | 35.5% | 2.82 | -10.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Shandong Taishan II
- 2026-10-26T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Jiangxi Liansheng · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Langfang Glory City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Guizhou Zhucheng · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-06T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Shenzhen 2028 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Jiangxi Liansheng · 1-2 (L)
Jiangxi Liansheng
- 2026-10-26T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Shandong Taishan II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Shanghai Port II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-12T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Xi'an Ronghai · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Dalian Kewei · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Shandong Taishan II · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-26T07:30:00.000Z · Shandong Taishan II 2-1 Jiangxi Liansheng (League Two)
- 2026-09-18T11:30:00.000Z · Shandong Taishan II 1-2 Jiangxi Liansheng (League Two)
- 2025-08-02T08:00:00.000Z · Shandong Taishan II 3-1 Jiangxi Liansheng (League Two)
- 2025-05-26T11:00:00.000Z · Shandong Taishan II 2-0 Jiangxi Liansheng (League Two)
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shanghai Port II | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 50 |
| 2 | Shandong Taishan II | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 50 |
| 3 | Xi'an Ronghai | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 50 |
| 4 | Guizhou Zhucheng | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 49 |
| 5 | Dalian Kewei | 28 | 12 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 49 |
| 6 | Shenzhen 2028 | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 42 |
| 7 | Langfang Glory City | 28 | 9 | 14 | 5 | -4 | 41 |
| 8 | Nantong Haimen Codion | 28 | 9 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 40 |
| 9 | Hubei Chufeng Heli | 28 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 40 |
| 10 | Tai'an Tiankuang | 28 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 40 |
| 11 | Dalian Yingbo B | 28 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 39 |
| 12 | Jiangxi Liansheng | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 39 |
| 13 | Xiamen Feilu | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 37 |
| 14 | Guangdong Mingtu | 28 | 7 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 36 |
| 15 | Rizhao Yuqi | 28 | 6 | 16 | 6 | -3 | 34 |
| 16 | Qingdao Red Lions | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | -2 | 32 |
| 17 | Changchun Xidu | 28 | 6 | 14 | 8 | -10 | 32 |
| 18 | Shangyu Pterosaur | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -17 | 31 |
| 19 | Guangzhou Dandelion | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -7 | 30 |
| 20 | Wuhan Three Towns II | 28 | 6 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 27 |
| 21 | Yichun Grand Tiger | 28 | 5 | 12 | 11 | -14 | 27 |
| 22 | Chengdu Rongcheng II | 28 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -12 | 25 |
| 23 | BIT | 28 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -21 | 25 |
| 24 | Shanghai Second | 28 | 2 | 13 | 13 | -20 | 19 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shandong Taishan II win, at 50.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.