Shandong Taishan II vs Shenzhen 2028 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for Shandong Taishan II and 1.09 for Shenzhen 2028, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Shandong Taishan II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Shandong Taishan II win

48.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.56 – 1.09

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Shandong Taishan II home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shenzhen 2028 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shandong Taishan II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 25% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.56 goals for Shandong Taishan II and 1.09 for Shenzhen 2028, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Shandong Taishan II win48%

Draw25%

Shenzhen 2028 win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.0%
1–011.0%
2–19.4%
2–08.6%
0–17.7%

Recent form

Shandong Taishan II

2026-10-26T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Jiangxi Liansheng · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Langfang Glory City · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Guizhou Zhucheng · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-06T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Shenzhen 2028 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Jiangxi Liansheng · 1-2 (L)

Shenzhen 2028

2026-10-25T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Dalian Kewei · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Xi'an Ronghai · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Port II · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Shandong Taishan II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Dalian Kewei · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shanghai Port II	28	15	5	8	19	50
2	Shandong Taishan II	28	14	8	6	14	50
3	Xi'an Ronghai	28	15	5	8	13	50
4	Guizhou Zhucheng	28	15	4	9	14	49
5	Dalian Kewei	28	12	13	3	11	49
6	Shenzhen 2028	28	11	9	8	9	42
7	Langfang Glory City	28	9	14	5	-4	41
8	Nantong Haimen Codion	28	9	13	6	11	40
9	Hubei Chufeng Heli	28	10	10	8	6	40
10	Tai'an Tiankuang	28	10	10	8	5	40
11	Dalian Yingbo B	28	9	12	7	4	39
12	Jiangxi Liansheng	28	11	6	11	3	39
13	Xiamen Feilu	28	9	10	9	4	37
14	Guangdong Mingtu	28	7	15	6	4	36
15	Rizhao Yuqi	28	6	16	6	-3	34
16	Qingdao Red Lions	28	7	11	10	-2	32
17	Changchun Xidu	28	6	14	8	-10	32
18	Shangyu Pterosaur	28	7	10	11	-17	31
19	Guangzhou Dandelion	28	7	9	12	-7	30
20	Wuhan Three Towns II	28	6	9	13	-7	27
21	Yichun Grand Tiger	28	5	12	11	-14	27
22	Chengdu Rongcheng II	28	5	10	13	-12	25
23	BIT	28	5	10	13	-21	25
24	Shanghai Second	28	2	13	13	-20	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Shandong Taishan II win, at 48.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.