Donghua University Stadium · Referee Ye Chenjie · Analysis updated 18:04 UTC
Shanghai Second vs Changchun Xidu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Shanghai Second and 1.04 for Changchun Xidu, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Shanghai Second the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shanghai Second home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Changchun Xidu away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shanghai Second to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 29% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Shanghai Second and 1.04 for Changchun Xidu, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–111.3%
- 0–010.9%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Shanghai Second
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Hubei Chufeng Heli · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Guangdong Mingtu · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Tai'an Tiankuang · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-15T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Nantong Haimen Codion · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs BIT · 1-2 (L)
Changchun Xidu
- 2026-09-18T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Guangdong Mingtu · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Hubei Chufeng Heli · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Dalian Kewei · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs BIT · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Xi'an Ronghai · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shanghai Port II | 25 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 46 |
| 2 | Guizhou Zhucheng | 25 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 45 |
| 3 | Shandong Taishan II | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 45 |
| 4 | Xi'an Ronghai | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 44 |
| 5 | Dalian Kewei | 25 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 44 |
| 6 | Shenzhen 2028 | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 41 |
| 7 | Hubei Chufeng Heli | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 38 |
| 8 | Jiangxi Liansheng | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 38 |
| 9 | Tai'an Tiankuang | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 36 |
| 10 | Langfang Glory City | 25 | 8 | 12 | 5 | -5 | 36 |
| 11 | Nantong Haimen Codion | 25 | 7 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 33 |
| 12 | Xiamen Feilu | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 32 |
| 13 | Dalian Yingbo B | 25 | 7 | 11 | 7 | -1 | 32 |
| 14 | Rizhao Yuqi | 25 | 6 | 14 | 5 | -2 | 32 |
| 15 | Guangdong Mingtu | 25 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 31 |
| 16 | Shangyu Pterosaur | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | -16 | 29 |
| 17 | Qingdao Red Lions | 25 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 28 |
| 18 | Guangzhou Dandelion | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | -8 | 26 |
| 19 | Yichun Grand Tiger | 25 | 5 | 11 | 9 | -9 | 26 |
| 20 | Changchun Xidu | 25 | 4 | 13 | 8 | -12 | 25 |
| 21 | Chengdu Rongcheng II | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | -8 | 24 |
| 22 | Wuhan Three Towns II | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 23 |
| 23 | BIT | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -21 | 22 |
| 24 | Shanghai Second | 25 | 2 | 11 | 12 | -18 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.