Pudong Football Stadium · Referee Jing Wang, China · Analysis updated 05:47 UTC
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chengdu Better City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.23 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives SHANGHAI SIPG the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SHANGHAI SIPG win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SHANGHAI SIPG home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chengdu Better City away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.6%
- 0–17.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.62 (model 43.2% vs market 35.5%, edge +7.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.62 | 35.5% | 43.2% | 2.31 | +7.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.7% | 75.5% | 1.32 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 3.20 | 28.5% | 29.0% | 3.45 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 53.4% | 53.5% | 1.87 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.70 | 24.7% | 24.5% | 4.08 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 46.8% | 46.5% | 2.15 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 71.9% | 71.0% | 1.41 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 64.5% | 56.8% | 1.76 | -7.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
SHANGHAI SIPG
- 2026-10-24T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Tianjin Teda · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chengdu Better City · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Daejeon Citizen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hangzhou Greentown · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ratchaburi · 6-4 (W)
Chengdu Better City
- 2026-10-24T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Dalian Zhixing · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Tianjin Teda · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Henan Jianye · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Shenyang Urban · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · SHANGHAI SIPG 3-0 Chengdu Better City (Super League)
- 2026-05-19T12:00:00.000Z · SHANGHAI SIPG 1-0 Chengdu Better City (Super League)
- 2025-08-30T11:35:00.000Z · SHANGHAI SIPG 1-4 Chengdu Better City (Super League)
- 2025-04-20T11:35:00.000Z · SHANGHAI SIPG 1-3 Chengdu Better City (Super League)
- 2024-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · SHANGHAI SIPG 1-3 Chengdu Better City (Super League)
- 2024-05-22T12:00:00.000Z · SHANGHAI SIPG 2-0 Chengdu Better City (Super League)
- 2023-09-23T11:35:00.000Z · SHANGHAI SIPG 1-2 Chengdu Better City (Super League)
- 2023-06-03T09:30:00.000Z · SHANGHAI SIPG 0-1 Chengdu Better City (Super League)
- 2023-01-08T08:30:00.000Z · SHANGHAI SIPG 4-0 Chengdu Better City (FA Cup)
- 2023-01-05T06:00:00.000Z · SHANGHAI SIPG 4-0 Chengdu Better City (FA Cup)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 52 |
| 2 | Dalian Zhixing | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 49 |
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 21 | 47 |
| 4 | Shandong Luneng | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 44 |
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 42 |
| 6 | Yunnan Yukun | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | -3 | 40 |
| 7 | Qingdao Youth Island | 29 | 8 | 15 | 6 | -6 | 39 |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 9 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 29 | 8 | 12 | 9 | -3 | 36 |
| 10 | Hangzhou Greentown | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | -12 | 32 |
| 12 | Tianjin Teda | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 31 |
| 13 | Shenyang Urban | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 29 |
| 14 | Henan Jianye | 29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | -4 | 28 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 29 | 5 | 12 | 12 | -11 | 22 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 29 | 6 | 3 | 20 | -28 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SHANGHAI SIPG win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.