Dingnan Football Youth Training Center · Referee J. Han · Analysis updated 21:44 UTC
Shangyu Pterosaur vs Hubei Chufeng Heli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Shangyu Pterosaur and 0.98 for Hubei Chufeng Heli, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Hubei Chufeng Heli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.0% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shangyu Pterosaur home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hubei Chufeng Heli away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–015.3%
- 0–115.0%
- 1–013.8%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–27.3%
Recent form
Shangyu Pterosaur
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Qingdao Red Lions · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs BIT · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Wuhan Three Towns II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Guangzhou Dandelion · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Shenzhen 2028 · 0-6 (L)
Hubei Chufeng Heli
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Second · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Changchun Xidu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Shenzhen 2028 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Langfang Glory City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Chengdu Rongcheng II · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-04T11:30:00.000Z · Shangyu Pterosaur 4-4 Hubei Chufeng Heli (League Two)
- 2026-04-14T08:30:00.000Z · Shangyu Pterosaur 1-2 Hubei Chufeng Heli (League Two)
- 2024-09-21T09:30:00.000Z · Shangyu Pterosaur 1-1 Hubei Chufeng Heli (League Two)
- 2024-08-17T08:30:00.000Z · Shangyu Pterosaur 2-1 Hubei Chufeng Heli (League Two)
- 2022-11-09T06:00:00.000Z · Shangyu Pterosaur 1-0 Hubei Chufeng Heli (League Two)
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shanghai Port II | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 50 |
| 2 | Xi'an Ronghai | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 50 |
| 3 | Guizhou Zhucheng | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 49 |
| 4 | Dalian Kewei | 27 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 48 |
| 5 | Shandong Taishan II | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 47 |
| 6 | Shenzhen 2028 | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 41 |
| 7 | Langfang Glory City | 28 | 9 | 14 | 5 | -4 | 41 |
| 8 | Tai'an Tiankuang | 28 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 40 |
| 9 | Hubei Chufeng Heli | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 39 |
| 10 | Dalian Yingbo B | 28 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 39 |
| 11 | Jiangxi Liansheng | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 39 |
| 12 | Nantong Haimen Codion | 27 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 37 |
| 13 | Xiamen Feilu | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 37 |
| 14 | Guangdong Mingtu | 27 | 7 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 35 |
| 15 | Rizhao Yuqi | 28 | 6 | 16 | 6 | -3 | 34 |
| 16 | Qingdao Red Lions | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | -2 | 32 |
| 17 | Changchun Xidu | 27 | 6 | 13 | 8 | -10 | 31 |
| 18 | Shangyu Pterosaur | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -17 | 31 |
| 19 | Guangzhou Dandelion | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -7 | 30 |
| 20 | Wuhan Three Towns II | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -4 | 27 |
| 21 | Yichun Grand Tiger | 28 | 5 | 12 | 11 | -14 | 27 |
| 22 | Chengdu Rongcheng II | 28 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -12 | 25 |
| 23 | BIT | 28 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -21 | 25 |
| 24 | Shanghai Second | 27 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -20 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.