Sharjah Stadium · Referee O. Khaild · Analysis updated 06:54 UTC
Sharjah FC vs Khorfakkan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.63 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Khorfakkan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Khorfakkan win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sharjah FC home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Khorfakkan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 26% / 25% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Sharjah FC and 1.63 for Khorfakkan, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.4%
- 1–07.2%
Recent form
Sharjah FC
- 2026-10-01T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Dhafra · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Ajman · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Wahda FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Dubai United · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:55:00.000Z · A vs Hatta SC · 3-0 (W)
Khorfakkan
- 2026-10-24T12:55:00.000Z · H vs Al-Dhafra · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:05:00.000Z · H vs Al Wahda FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-08T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Wasl FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Jazira · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ittihad Kalba · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-15T14:10:00.000Z · Sharjah FC 3-1 Khorfakkan (Pro League)
- 2025-09-11T16:15:00.000Z · Sharjah FC 2-2 Khorfakkan (Pro League)
- 2025-05-22T15:40:00.000Z · Sharjah FC 4-2 Khorfakkan (Pro League)
- 2025-01-11T13:05:00.000Z · Sharjah FC 1-0 Khorfakkan (Pro League)
- 2024-09-07T16:15:00.000Z · Sharjah FC 2-1 Khorfakkan (League Cup)
- 2024-08-17T16:45:00.000Z · Sharjah FC 1-0 Khorfakkan (League Cup)
- 2024-05-20T14:10:00.000Z · Sharjah FC 3-1 Khorfakkan (Pro League)
- 2023-12-15T15:30:00.000Z · Sharjah FC 4-1 Khorfakkan (Pro League)
- 2023-02-17T13:30:00.000Z · Sharjah FC 0-1 Khorfakkan (Pro League)
- 2022-12-16T12:45:00.000Z · Sharjah FC 1-1 Khorfakkan (League Cup)
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Jazira | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 14 |
| 2 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Al-Wasl FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 |
| 4 | Al Ain | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Wahda FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sharjah FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Ajman | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Al Nasr | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Dubai United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 10 | Al-Dhafra | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 5 |
| 12 | Khorfakkan | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 13 | Hatta SC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Baniyas SC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Khorfakkan win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.