Shatin vs Eastern Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Shatin and 1.00 for Eastern, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Shatin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Shatin win

77.4% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.00 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Eastern away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shatin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 13% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Shatin and 1.00 for Eastern, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 60%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Match result (1X2)

Shatin win77%

Draw13%

Eastern win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

23%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals56%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

2–08.2%
2–18.2%
3–08.2%
3–18.2%
4–06.2%

Recent form

Shatin

Eastern

2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs North District · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Kitchee · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs BC Rangers · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Kowloon City · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Wofoo Tai Po · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kitchee	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Warriors	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	North District	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Wofoo Tai Po	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Eastern	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Kowloon City	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Eastern District	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Southern District	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	BC Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Hong Kong FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Shatin	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Shatin win, at 77.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.