· Analysis updated 03:56 UTC
Shatin vs Hong Kong FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.91 expected goals for Shatin and 1.44 for Hong Kong FC, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Shatin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Shatin win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.91 – 1.44
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hong Kong FC away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shatin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.91 goals for Shatin and 1.44 for Hong Kong FC, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–26.9%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–26.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.8% | 77.7% | 1.29 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.85 | 50.6% | 51.3% | 1.95 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 3.10 | 28.8% | 29.1% | 3.44 | +0.3 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.62 | 34.8% | 35.0% | 2.86 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.3% | 22.2% | 4.50 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.83 | 48.8% | 48.6% | 2.06 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 65.2% | 65.0% | 1.54 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.29 | 72.6% | 70.8% | 1.41 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Shatin
Hong Kong FC
- 2026-10-01T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Shatin · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Kowloon City · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Wofoo Tai Po · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Warriors · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Southern District · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eastern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | North District | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Hong Kong FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Shatin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Southern District | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 6 | Kitchee | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shatin win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.