Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Sheffield Utd and 1.43 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Birmingham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.22 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sheffield Utd home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Birmingham away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Birmingham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 32% / 26% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Sheffield Utd and 1.43 for Birmingham, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sheffield Utd win32%

Draw26%

Birmingham win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.3%
0–110.0%
1–28.8%
1–08.6%
2–17.5%

Recent form

Sheffield Utd

2026-10-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Portsmouth · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 0-1 (L)

Birmingham

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs QPR · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Preston · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs West Brom · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	12	7	4	1	10	25
2	Swansea	11	7	2	2	8	23
3	West Ham	11	6	4	1	18	22
4	Birmingham	11	5	5	1	9	20
5	West Brom	11	6	2	3	3	20
6	Stoke City	11	6	1	4	2	19
7	Wolves	11	5	3	3	3	18
8	Southampton	11	6	3	2	11	17
9	QPR	11	4	5	2	3	17
10	Blackburn	11	4	3	4	1	15
11	Sheffield Utd	11	4	3	4	1	15
12	Millwall	11	4	3	4	0	15
13	Portsmouth	11	4	3	4	0	15
14	Wrexham	11	3	5	3	-1	14
15	Bristol City	11	4	2	5	-3	14
16	Charlton	11	3	5	3	-5	14
17	Bolton	12	4	2	6	-7	14
18	Lincoln	11	3	3	5	-10	12
19	Cardiff	11	2	5	4	1	11
20	Watford	11	3	2	6	-9	11
21	Norwich	11	3	0	8	-4	9
22	Burnley	11	1	5	5	-5	8
23	Derby	11	1	3	7	-11	6
24	Preston	11	1	1	9	-15	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.