Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Sheffield Utd and 1.28 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Lincoln the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Lincoln win

45.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.88 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sheffield Utd home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lincoln away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lincoln to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 26% / 29% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Sheffield Utd and 1.28 for Lincoln, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Sheffield Utd win26%

Draw29%

Lincoln win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

0–114.9%
1–113.0%
0–011.6%
1–010.2%
0–29.5%

Recent form

Sheffield Utd

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Blackburn · 2-1 (W)

Lincoln

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield Utd · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Swansea · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bristol City · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Preston · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2023-08-30T18:45:00.000Z · Sheffield Utd 0-0 Lincoln (League Cup)

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	9	6	2	1	8	20
2	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	5	18
3	West Ham	9	4	4	1	11	16
4	Stoke City	9	5	1	3	2	16
5	Wolves	8	4	2	2	4	14
6	QPR	9	3	5	1	3	14
7	Birmingham	9	3	5	1	2	14
8	Millwall	9	4	2	3	1	14
9	West Brom	9	4	2	3	1	14
10	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	-1	14
11	Southampton	9	5	2	2	10	13
12	Charlton	9	3	4	2	-3	13
13	Blackburn	9	3	3	3	1	12
14	Sheffield Utd	9	3	3	3	1	12
15	Wrexham	9	2	5	2	-3	11
16	Lincoln	9	3	2	4	-4	11
17	Bolton	9	3	1	5	-5	10
18	Norwich	9	3	0	6	-2	9
19	Portsmouth	8	2	2	4	-2	8
20	Watford	9	2	2	5	-7	8
21	Cardiff	9	1	4	4	-3	7
22	Burnley	9	1	4	4	-4	7
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	-7	6
24	Preston	9	1	1	7	-8	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lincoln win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.