Bramall Lane · Analysis updated 16:21 UTC
Sheffield Utd vs Stoke City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sheffield Utd and 1.65 for Stoke City, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Stoke City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Stoke City win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sheffield Utd home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Stoke City away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–18.4%
- 2–17.4%
- 0–26.9%
Recent form
Sheffield Utd
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Blackburn · 2-1 (W)
Stoke City
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bolton · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Utd · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Watford · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2025-12-29T19:45:00.000Z · Sheffield Utd 2-1 Stoke City (Championship)
- 2025-12-06T15:00:00.000Z · Sheffield Utd 4-0 Stoke City (Championship)
- 2025-04-25T19:00:00.000Z · Sheffield Utd 2-0 Stoke City (Championship)
- 2024-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · Sheffield Utd 2-0 Stoke City (Championship)
- 2023-01-14T15:00:00.000Z · Sheffield Utd 3-1 Stoke City (Championship)
- 2022-10-08T14:00:00.000Z · Sheffield Utd 1-3 Stoke City (Championship)
- 2022-04-02T14:00:00.000Z · Sheffield Utd 0-1 Stoke City (Championship)
- 2021-10-16T14:00:00.000Z · Sheffield Utd 2-1 Stoke City (Championship)
- 2019-05-05T11:30:00.000Z · Sheffield Utd 2-2 Stoke City (Championship)
- 2018-10-23T18:45:00.000Z · Sheffield Utd 1-1 Stoke City (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | West Ham | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 4 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | QPR | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Southampton | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 8 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Lincoln | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 11 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 20 | Norwich | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 9 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stoke City win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.