Middlewood Training Ground · Analysis updated 22:40 UTC
Sheffield Wednesday U21 vs Brentford U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday U21 and 1.53 for Brentford U21, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Sheffield Wednesday U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sheffield Wednesday U21 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brentford U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sheffield Wednesday U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 24% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Sheffield Wednesday U21 and 1.53 for Brentford U21, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–07.0%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Sheffield Wednesday U21
- 2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Crewe Alexandra U21 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Barnsley U21 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff City U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wigan Athletic U21 · 2-0 (W)
Brentford U21
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City U21 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-16T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Wycombe U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Rennes · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Everton U21 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-04-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Derby County U21 · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Professional Development League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers Res. | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 2 | Fleetwood Town U21 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | Coventry City U21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Sheffield United U21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Cardiff City U21 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 12 |
| 6 | Bristol City U21 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 7 | Swansea City U21 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Wigan Athletic U21 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Huddersfield Town U21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Barnsley U21 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Queens Park Rangers U21 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Peterborough United U21 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Sheffield Wednesday U21 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Colchester United U21 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Hull City U21 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Millwall U21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.