Hillsborough · Analysis updated 15:20 UTC
Sheffield Wednesday vs Blackpool Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 0.95 for Blackpool, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Sheffield Wednesday the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sheffield Wednesday win
57.4% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sheffield Wednesday home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Blackpool away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sheffield Wednesday to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 23% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 0.95 for Blackpool, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.5%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.4%
Recent form
Sheffield Wednesday
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Salford City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stockport County · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wigan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wycombe · 2-1 (W)
Blackpool
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambridge United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Crewe · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Wigan · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Plymouth · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bromley · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bradford | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 20 |
| 2 | Stockport County | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Huddersfield | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | Plymouth | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Cambridge United | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Sheffield Wednesday | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 7 | Reading | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 15 |
| 8 | Oxford United | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 9 | Leyton Orient | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | Burton Albion | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | Wycombe | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 | Stevenage | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 13 | Mansfield Town | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 | Leicester | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 15 | AFC Wimbledon | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 12 |
| 16 | Luton | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 17 | Doncaster | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 18 | Milton Keynes Dons | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 19 | Peterborough | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 20 | Blackpool | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Barnsley | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 22 | Bromley | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 23 | Notts County | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 24 | Wigan | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sheffield Wednesday win, at 57.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.