Hillsborough · Analysis updated 15:00 UTC
Sheffield Wednesday vs Cambridge United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 1.18 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Sheffield Wednesday the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sheffield Wednesday win
47.8% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sheffield Wednesday home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cambridge United away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sheffield Wednesday to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 25% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 1.18 for Cambridge United, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.0%
- 0–17.1%
Recent form
Sheffield Wednesday
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Salford City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stockport County · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wigan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wycombe · 2-1 (W)
Cambridge United
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Wimbledon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gillingham · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oxford United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Reading · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Burton Albion · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Bradford | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 3 | Stockport County | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Huddersfield | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 5 | Cambridge United | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Reading | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 7 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 8 | Oxford United | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 9 | Stevenage | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Burton Albion | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | Leyton Orient | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 13 | Luton | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 14 | Mansfield Town | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Wycombe | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Doncaster | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | Leicester | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Blackpool | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Peterborough | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Bromley | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 22 | Notts County | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 23 | Milton Keynes Dons | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
| 24 | Wigan | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sheffield Wednesday win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.