Hillsborough · Referee S. Stockbridge · Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
Sheffield Wednesday vs Wigan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 1.18 for Wigan, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Sheffield Wednesday the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sheffield Wednesday win
67.5% probability
Expected goals
2.58 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sheffield Wednesday home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sheffield Wednesday to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 17% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.58 goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 1.18 for Wigan, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–17.1%
- 3–06.7%
Recent form
Sheffield Wednesday
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Salford City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stockport County · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wigan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wycombe · 2-1 (W)
Wigan
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stevenage · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackpool · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wycombe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield Wednesday · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Stockport County · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2022-07-23T14:00:00.000Z · Sheffield Wednesday 1-4 Wigan (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-02-08T19:45:00.000Z · Sheffield Wednesday 1-0 Wigan (League One)
- 2021-09-28T18:45:00.000Z · Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 Wigan (League One)
- 2020-01-28T19:45:00.000Z · Sheffield Wednesday 1-2 Wigan (Championship)
- 2019-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · Sheffield Wednesday 1-0 Wigan (Championship)
- 2019-01-19T15:00:00.000Z · Sheffield Wednesday 1-0 Wigan (Championship)
- 2018-08-04T14:00:00.000Z · Sheffield Wednesday 2-3 Wigan (Championship)
- 2017-02-03T19:45:00.000Z · Sheffield Wednesday 1-0 Wigan (Championship)
- 2016-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 Wigan (Championship)
- 2014-12-30T19:45:00.000Z · Sheffield Wednesday 1-0 Wigan (Championship)
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Bradford | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 3 | Stockport County | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Huddersfield | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 5 | Cambridge United | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Reading | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 7 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 8 | Oxford United | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 9 | Stevenage | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Burton Albion | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | Leyton Orient | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 13 | Luton | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 14 | Mansfield Town | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Wycombe | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Doncaster | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | Leicester | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Blackpool | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Peterborough | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Bromley | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 22 | Notts County | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 23 | Milton Keynes Dons | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
| 24 | Wigan | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sheffield Wednesday win, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.