Hillsborough · Referee B. Speedie · Analysis updated 20:32 UTC
Sheffield Wednesday vs Wolves Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 1.30 for Wolves, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Sheffield Wednesday the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sheffield Wednesday home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wolves away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
Sheffield Wednesday
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Salford City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stockport County · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wigan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wycombe · 2-1 (W)
Wolves
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs West Brom · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Everton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield Utd · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Birmingham · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs West Ham · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-25T18:45:00.000Z · Sheffield Wednesday 0-2 Wolves (League Cup)
- 2018-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · Sheffield Wednesday 0-2 Wolves (League Cup)
- 2018-04-28T14:00:00.000Z · Sheffield Wednesday 0-0 Wolves (Championship)
- 2017-12-15T19:45:00.000Z · Sheffield Wednesday 0-1 Wolves (Championship)
- 2017-01-02T15:00:00.000Z · Sheffield Wednesday 0-0 Wolves (Championship)
- 2016-11-26T15:00:00.000Z · Sheffield Wednesday 2-0 Wolves (Championship)
- 2016-05-07T11:30:00.000Z · Sheffield Wednesday 1-2 Wolves (Championship)
- 2015-12-20T14:00:00.000Z · Sheffield Wednesday 4-1 Wolves (Championship)
- 2015-03-17T19:45:00.000Z · Sheffield Wednesday 0-3 Wolves (Championship)
- 2014-12-13T15:00:00.000Z · Sheffield Wednesday 0-1 Wolves (Championship)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.