Tolka Park · Analysis updated 13:32 UTC
Shelbourne vs Waterford Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.42 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Shelbourne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.5% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shelbourne home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Waterford away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–08.2%
- 0–18.2%
Recent form
Shelbourne
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sligo Rovers · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Galway United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundalk · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Drogheda United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Derry City · 0-1 (L)
Waterford
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Shamrock Rovers · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Derry City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundalk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sligo Rovers · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs St Patrick's Athl. · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · Shelbourne 0-1 Waterford (Premier Division)
- 2026-05-22T18:45:00.000Z · Shelbourne 2-1 Waterford (Premier Division)
- 2026-02-06T19:45:00.000Z · Shelbourne 1-1 Waterford (Premier Division)
- 2025-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · Shelbourne 2-1 Waterford (Premier Division)
- 2025-06-23T18:45:00.000Z · Shelbourne 2-2 Waterford (Premier Division)
- 2025-05-05T16:00:00.000Z · Shelbourne 0-1 Waterford (Premier Division)
- 2025-02-21T19:45:00.000Z · Shelbourne 1-0 Waterford (Premier Division)
- 2025-01-18T13:00:00.000Z · Shelbourne 4-1 Waterford (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-10-18T18:45:00.000Z · Shelbourne 3-1 Waterford (Premier Division)
- 2024-06-13T18:45:00.000Z · Shelbourne 1-0 Waterford (Premier Division)
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 33 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 21 | 65 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 27 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 59 |
| 4 | Shelbourne | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 43 |
| 5 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 41 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 41 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | -6 | 38 |
| 8 | Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | -10 | 34 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | -34 | 23 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.