· Analysis updated 15:27 UTC
Shenavarsazi Qeshm vs Havadar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Shenavarsazi Qeshm and 0.31 for Havadar, a combined total of 1.52. That distribution gives Shenavarsazi Qeshm the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 19% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 27%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Shenavarsazi Qeshm win
59.8% probability
Expected goals
1.21 – 0.31
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shenavarsazi Qeshm home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shenavarsazi Qeshm to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 31% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.21 goals for Shenavarsazi Qeshm and 0.31 for Havadar, a combined 1.52 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 20% and both teams to score at 19%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 27%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–026.5%
- 0–021.8%
- 2–016.1%
- 1–18.2%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Mes Soongoun · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Fard Alborz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Novin Ahvaz · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pars Jonoubi JAM · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-16T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Havadar · 3-0 (W)
Havadar
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Azadegan League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mes Rafsanjan | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | Ario Eslamshahr | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Saipa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Fard Alborz | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Mes Soongoun | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Novin Ahvaz | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Naft Gachsaran | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Niroye Zamini | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Mes Kerman | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Havadar | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shenavarsazi Qeshm win, at 59.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 19% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.