Shenavarsazi Qeshm vs Saipa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.84 expected goals for Shenavarsazi Qeshm and 0.76 for Saipa, a combined total of 1.61. That distribution gives Shenavarsazi Qeshm the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.84 – 0.76

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Shenavarsazi Qeshm home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Saipa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 35% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.84 goals for Shenavarsazi Qeshm and 0.76 for Saipa, a combined 1.61 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Shenavarsazi Qeshm win35%

Draw35%

Saipa win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

65%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals48%

Over 2.5 goals22%

Over 3.5 goals8%

Both teams to score30%

Correct score

0–020.1%
1–016.9%
0–115.3%
1–112.9%
2–07.1%

Recent form

Shenavarsazi Qeshm

2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Mes Soongoun · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Fard Alborz · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-21T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Novin Ahvaz · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pars Jonoubi JAM · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-16T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Havadar · 3-0 (W)

Saipa

2026-07-16T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Naft Bandar Abbas · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Navad Urmia · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Shahrdari Noshahr · 1-0 (W)
2026-06-27T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Fard Alborz · 1-2 (L)
2026-06-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ario Eslamshahr · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Azadegan League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Saipa	4	3	0	1	2	9
2	Pars Jonoubi JAM	4	2	2	0	2	8
3	Mes Rafsanjan	4	2	2	0	2	8
4	Be'sat Kermanshah	4	2	1	1	3	7
5	Naft Masjed Soleyman	4	2	0	2	2	6
6	Shahin Bandar Ameri	4	1	3	0	2	6
7	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	4	1	3	0	1	6
8	Ario Eslamshahr	4	2	0	2	-1	6
9	Naft Bandar Abbas	4	1	2	1	0	5
10	Fard Alborz	4	1	2	1	0	5
11	Niroye Zamini	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Novin Ahvaz	4	0	3	1	-1	3
13	Mes Kerman	4	0	3	1	-1	3
14	Naft Gachsaran	4	0	3	1	-1	3
15	Mes Soongoun	4	0	2	2	-3	2
16	Havadar	4	0	1	3	-6	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.