Sheriff Arena · Analysis updated 12:12 UTC
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Dacia-Buiucani Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.46 expected goals for Sheriff Tiraspol and 0.81 for Dacia-Buiucani, a combined total of 3.27. That distribution gives Sheriff Tiraspol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sheriff Tiraspol win
73.6% probability
Expected goals
2.46 – 0.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sheriff Tiraspol home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dacia-Buiucani away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sheriff Tiraspol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 16% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.46 goals for Sheriff Tiraspol and 0.81 for Dacia-Buiucani, a combined 3.27 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.5%
- 3–09.5%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–17.6%
Recent form
Sheriff Tiraspol
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CSF Bălți · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Milsami Orhei · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrocub · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Zimbru · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Politehnica UTM · 4-0 (W)
Dacia-Buiucani
- 2026-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sireți · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrocub · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Zimbru · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs CSF Bălți · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 37 |
| 2 | Petrocub | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 29 |
| 3 | Zimbru | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Dacia-Buiucani | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| 5 | Politehnica UTM | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 19 |
| 6 | Milsami Orhei | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| 7 | Sireți | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -12 | 10 |
| 8 | CSF Bălți | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | -39 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sheriff Tiraspol win, at 73.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.