Sheriff Arena · Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Petrocub Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.91 expected goals for Sheriff Tiraspol and 1.06 for Petrocub, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Sheriff Tiraspol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sheriff Tiraspol win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
1.91 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sheriff Tiraspol home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Petrocub away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sheriff Tiraspol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.91 goals for Sheriff Tiraspol and 1.06 for Petrocub, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–09.3%
- 3–16.3%
Recent form
Sheriff Tiraspol
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CSF Bălți · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Milsami Orhei · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrocub · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Zimbru · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Politehnica UTM · 4-0 (W)
Petrocub
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Politehnica UTM · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sireți · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CSF Bălți · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Milsami Orhei · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 28 |
| 2 | Zimbru | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 26 |
| 3 | Petrocub | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 24 |
| 4 | Dacia-Buiucani | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 20 |
| 5 | Milsami Orhei | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 17 |
| 6 | Politehnica UTM | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Sireți | 13 | 0 | 7 | 6 | -11 | 7 |
| 8 | CSF Bălți | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -33 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sheriff Tiraspol win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.